By Otis Kirk

FAYETTEVILLE -- The college football season is nearing and the speculation is running rampant on what Arkansas' record will be.

Predictions are coming in from a losing record to 10 or 11 wins. The truth will probably end up being somewhere in the middle of that. The Hogs went 7-6 in 2022 and lost four games by a combined nine points. 

Here's three keys to Arkansas' 2023 season as it relates to the schedule. 

Win Home Games

Arkansas has seven true home games in 2023. That doesn't include being the designated home team against Texas A&M in Arlington. The four non-conference games are all at home. Western Carolina (Sept. 2) is in Little Rock. Kent State (Sept. 9), BYU (Sept. 16) and Florida International (Nov. 18) are all in Fayetteville. BYU figures to be the toughest of those four schools and the Hogs defeated them 52-35 in Provo, Utah, last season. The SEC games in Fayetteville are Mississippi State (Oct. 21), Auburn (Nov. 11) and Missouri (Nov. 24). The fact Arkansas doesn't play an SEC game in Fayetteville until Oct. 21 is concerning, but more about that later. These are seven games that are all winnable and for Arkansas to do as well as they hope it will be very important to win them all.

3 Swing Games

While it's likely the Hogs lose at LSU (Sept. 23) and Alabama (Oct. 14) they do have three other SEC games that could help determine the success of the season. Assuming the Hogs do win their seven home games then swing contests against Texas A&M (Sept. 30) in Arlington, at Ole Miss (Oct. 7) and at Florida (Nov. 4) could determine how many additional wins Arkansas can gain. The Hogs fell to the Aggies 23-21 last season in Arlington. It was a game that Arkansas should have won, but as they have done numerous times against the Aggies they found a way to lose it. The Razorbacks defeated Ole Miss 42-27 last season in Fayetteville. That made Sam Pittman 2-1 against Lane Kiffin. The lone loss was in 2021 in Oxford when the Hogs fell 52-51. Arkansas has never won in Gainesville, but Florida has struggled under Billy Napier. The Razorbacks have a bye week before Florida. If Arkansas could win some of these games they could go from a good to much better season.

Survive Early Murderer's Row

Arkansas' schedule to begin SEC play is very brutal. The Hogs go to LSU, then face Texas A&M in Arlington before opening October at Ole Miss and Alabama. That is four tough games before they play a single SEC game in Fayetteville. As noted earlier the A&M game is counted a home game for Arkansas this season. This stretch will test the Hogs, but if they can win some of them then the schedule does get better after the trip to Tuscaloosa. 

Prediction

8-4