• For the seventh time this year, the overall, or Business Conditions Index, fell below growth neutral. 
• For a third straight month, the wholesale price inflation gauge rose.  
• Concern was raised regarding the potential of a January 15 longshoremen port strike. 
• The region’s employment index slumped below growth neutral for the 12th straight month.  
• Despite falling manufacturing employment, approximately one in five firms reported labor shortages.    
• U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data show that regional manufacturing employment fell by 4,500 jobs

(-0.4%) for 2024. During the same period, U.S. manufacturing employment sank by 73,000 jobs

or -0.6%.    

• According to the latest U.S. International Trade Administration data, the regional economy expanded 2024 year-to-date manufacturing exports by $922.3 million from the same period in 2023 for a 1.2% gain. 

OMAHA, Neb. (January 2, 2025) — For the seventh time in 2024, the Creighton University Mid-America Business Conditions Index, a leading economic indicator for the nine-state region stretching from Minnesota to Arkansas, sank below 50.0 growth neutral threshold.  

Overall Index: The Business Conditions Index, which uses the identical methodology as the national Institute for Supply Management (ISM) and ranges between 0 and 100 with 50.0 representing growth neutral, slumped to 48.7 from 49.6 in November. The index has vacillated slightly above and below growth neutral every month in 2024. 

“Manufacturers in the nation and region continue to shed jobs. In terms of impending economic threats, such as an East/Gulf Coast longshoreman strike looming on January 15, approximately 45% of supply managers expect a recession in the first half of 2025,” said Ernie Goss, PhD, director of Creighton University’s Economic Forecasting Group and the Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics in the Heider College of Business.  

The Mid-America report is produced independently of the national ISM. 

Employment: After climbing to growth neutral in December of last year, the employment gauge has tumbled below 50.0 for the past 12 months. The December employment index improved slightly to a weak 46.4 from November’s 44.4. Despite falling manufacturing employment, approximately one in five firms reported labor shortages.    

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data show that regional manufacturing employment fell by 4,500 jobs (-0.4%) for 2024. During the same period, U.S. manufacturing employment sank by 73,000 jobs, or -0.6%.    

Comments from supply managers in December: 

• “Inflation is the hidden tax the government imposes.” 
• “The campaign promises around DOGE and others are lost when we continue to raise the debt ceiling!” 
• “We are so fortunate to have a new administration that loves this country and is willing to make the needed sacrifices for the people and future generations. That said, our economy will flourish if given the opportunity.”  
• “2025 will be a correction year with better things to come if we focus on the American people and its moral majority.”  
• “The year is ending strong, and we expect to carry this through the first quarter.”  
• “Prices for corrugated (steel) are all over the map. Softness in certain market areas.” 
• “National suppliers announced price increases in lock step. Buyer beware.” 

Wholesale Prices: The December price gauge rose slightly to 57.1 from 56.6 in November. “The regional inflation yardstick has clearly moved into a range indicating inflationary pressures still modest but moving somewhat higher. As a result, I expect the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged at its January 28-29 meeting,” said Goss. 

Confidence: Looking ahead six months, economic optimism, as captured by the December Business Confidence Index, sank to 52.8 from 55.6 in November. “Approximately 45% of supply managers expect worsening business conditions over the next six months,” said Goss. 

Inventories: The regional inventory index, reflecting levels of raw materials and supplies, fell to 49.1 from 51.8 in November. “The potential for an East/Gulf Coast longshoremen’s strike on January 15, 2025, was one factor of concern regarding inventory levels,” said Goss.   

Trade: The relatively strong dollar continues to make U.S. goods less competitively priced abroad and pushed the export index below growth neutral, but December’s 45.8 was up slightly from November’s 45.5. A weak regional economy slowed purchases from abroad as the import reading slumped to 42.1 from November’s 49.1.  

According to the latest U.S. International Trade Administration data, the regional economy expanded 2024 year-to-date manufacturing exports by $922.3 million from the same period in 2023 for a 1.2% gain. 

Other survey components of the December Business Conditions Index were: new orders dipped to 47.6 from 48.6 in November; the production or sales index fell to 47.1 from November’s 48.2; and the speed of deliveries of raw materials and supplies softened to 53.3 from November’s 55.2. This decline indicates supply chain disruptions and delivery bottlenecks declined for the month. 

The Creighton Economic Forecasting Group has conducted the monthly survey of supply managers in nine states since 1994 to produce leading economic indicators of the Mid-America economy. States included in the survey are Arkansas, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma and South Dakota. 

Below are the state reports: 

Arkansas: The state’s December Business Conditions Index declined to 46.1 from 47.3 in November. Components from the December survey of supply managers were: new orders at 45.7; production or sales at 46.9; delivery lead time at 52.8; inventories at 44.3; and employment at 41.0. According to the latest U.S. International Trade Administration data, Arkansas expanded 2024 year-to-date manufacturing exports by $202.2 million from the same period in 2023 for a 4.3% gain. 

Iowa: The state’s Business Conditions Index for December slumped to 40.8 from 44.7 in November.  Components of the overall December index were: new orders at 44.3; production or sales at 42.1; delivery lead time at 45.4; employment at 47.8; and inventories at 24.6. According to the latest U.S. International Trade Administration data, Iowa experienced a $1.4 billion drop in 2024 year-to-date manufacturing exports compared to the same period in 2023 for a 9.9% decline. 

Kansas: The Kansas Business Conditions Index for December dropped to 46.3 from 49.8 in November. Components of the leading economic indicators from the monthly survey of supply managers for December were: new orders at 45.8; production or sales at 46.9; delivery lead time at 52.9; employment at 41.4; and inventories at 44.6. According to the latest U.S. International Trade Administration data, Kansas expanded 2024 year-to-date manufacturing exports by $288.5 million from the same period in 2023 for a 2.8% gain. 

Minnesota: The December Business Conditions Index for Minnesota declined to 51.4 from 53.4 in November. Components of the overall December index were: new orders at 46.4; production or sales at 49.0; delivery lead time at 56.2; inventories at 53,4; and employment at 51.8. According to the latest U.S. International Trade Administration data, Minnesota expanded 2024 year-to-date manufacturing exports by $2.2 billion from the same period in 2023 for a 11.5% gain. 

Missouri: The state’s December Business Conditions Index dropped to 47.1 in December from 47.4 in November. Components of the overall index from the survey of supply managers for December were: new orders at 45.9; production or sales at 47.3; delivery lead time at 53.4; inventories at 45.9; and employment at 42.9. According to the latest U.S. International Trade Administration data, Missouri expanded 2024 year-to-date manufacturing exports by $1.3 billion from the same period in 2023 for a 10.0% gain. 

Nebraska: For the seventh straight month, Nebraska’s overall index rose above growth neutral. The state’s December Business Conditions Index expanded to a regional high 58.6, up from 57.0 in November. Components of the index from the monthly survey of supply managers for December were: new orders at 47.4; production or sales at 52.1; delivery lead time at 60.9; inventories at 66.0; and employment at 66.7. According to the latest U.S. International Trade Administration data, Nebraska expanded 2024 year-to-date manufacturing exports by $118.3 million from the same period in 2023 for a 2.4% gain. 

North Dakota: The state’s overall, or Business Conditions, index advanced above growth neutral for a fifth consecutive month to 51.8 in December, but it was down from 52.2 in November. Components of the overall index for December were: new orders at 46.5; production or sales at 49.4; delivery lead time at 56.7; employment at 53.5; and inventories at 54.8. According to the latest U.S. International Trade Administration data, North Dakota experienced a drop in 2024 year-to-date manufacturing exports of $2.6 billion from the same period in 2023 for a 40.0% decline. 

Oklahoma: The state’s Business Conditions Index for December climbed to 52.7 from 50.2 in November. Components of the overall December index were: new orders at 46.6; production or sales at 49.6; delivery lead time at 57.1; inventories at 55.8; and employment at 54.6. According to the latest U.S. International Trade Administration data, Oklahoma expanded 2024 year-to-date manufacturing exports by $1.1 billion from the same period in 2023 for a 21.0% gain. 

South Dakota: The December Business Conditions Index for South Dakota climbed to 46.5 from November’s 42.6. Components of the overall December index were: new orders at 45.8; production or sales at 47.0; delivery lead time at 53.1; inventories at 45.0; and employment at 41.8.   According to the latest U.S. International Trade Administration data, South Dakota experienced a 2024 year-to-date fall in manufacturing exports sank by $233.3 million from the same period in 2023 for a decline of 12.4%. 

Survey results for the month of January will be released on February 3, 2025, the first business day of the month.