Wall Street Journal By Sen. Tom Cotton
The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty expired this month. The end of New Start is a watershed moment in American nuclear strategy. Far from a failure of diplomacy, this expiration is an overdue correction of a strategic mistake that left America vulnerable to two nuclear rivals: Russia and China. After years of unilateral restraint, while our adversaries expanded their arsenals, America can finally build a nuclear deterrent for the threats we face.
Consider the scale of Russia’s nuclear buildup. According to unclassified Defense Intelligence Agency estimates, Moscow maintains approximately 1,550 deployed strategic warheads and up to 2,000 nonstrategic warheads. These figures likely understate reality given Russia’s warhead production rates. Vladimir Putin’s history of arms-control violations made clear that he wouldn’t be constrained by New Start’s now-defunct limits—despite his empty assurances that he would.
But raw numbers tell only part of Russia’s story. Moscow has also developed what it calls “novel” nuclear delivery systems, including an ICBM-mounted hypersonic glide vehicle, a nuclear-powered cruise missile, and a nuclear-capable autonomous underwater system. In 2025 the Defense Intelligence Agency warned that Russia believes a “satellite capable of carrying a nuclear device” could “deter Western adversaries reliant on space and enable Russia to disrupt or destroy Western satellites should deterrence fail.”
If Russia’s modernization were our only challenge, we might manage with the legacy approach of bilateral arms control. But the strategic earthquake reshaping global security is the emergence of China as a second nuclear peer—one expanding its arsenal at an unprecedented pace.